About The Resilience Institute

The Resilience Institute is part of WWU Huxley’s College of the Environment. It facilitates scholarship, education, and practice on reducing social and physical vulnerability through sustainable community development, as a way to minimize loss and enhance recovery from disasters in Washington State and its interdependent global communities.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Vulnerability paradox

In some disaster recovery research I've been reading recently, Rodney Runyan, in his article Small Business in the Face of Crisis, notes:

" With the technological advances societies have seen over the past century, we often feel that disasters can be safely predicted or controlled. But the paradox is that the safer our world becomes, the more vulnerable we are when a disaster actually happens."

This strikes true for New Orleans. The levee system reduced seasonal flooding and loss from storm surge during smaller hurricanes. However, when Katrina did hit, the loss was catastrophic. Much of the housing was built with little or no thought to flooding and was quickly destroyed by the water. Residential and commercial construction expanded into previous swamp land that had been uninhabitable before the levees. The Corps and FEMA furthered an unwarranted sense of safety by basing flood maps on rainfall and drainage, rather than on levee breach scenarios.

It seems obvious that people who regularly experience the inconveniences and losses from hurricanes, earthquakes, floods are more used to the experience. They may also have less to loose because they do not accumulate what can be easily destroyed by such events.

With technological strategies for disaster reduction in place, it is definitely more of an affront to our sense of safety when a unexpectedly large hazard does occur. We are less physically prepared when we don't regularly experience disasters. Nor are we able to as easily pass down disaster resilience knowledge or a sense of continued watchfulness from one generation to the next when the period between disasters is long.

But, on the other hand, technology has also done much to reduce losses (especially loss of life) from disasters....even if it also creates a false sense of complete safety. I certainly want the best in building codes, early warning systems, urban planning ... and yes, the occasional levee, even if I know that are only technological tools for disaster reduction, not the complete solution.

Perhaps it isn't that we are better or worse off with newer technologies, but that the pattern of losses, vulnerabilities and capacities shift. It is these shifts that we need to really pay attention to. Following a comment below by HonSanto, its not that we are overdeveloped, but that we may be dysfunctionally developed. It's an interesting paradox to ponder. Thoughts?

2 comments:

Fred "Sonny" Kunchick said...

Yes, this is a paradox. Technology has made us safer and more vulnerable at the same time. In this, we have decreased our risk to high probability low impact events and at the same time increased our risk to low probability high impact events. The flooding that occurred recently in Reno, NV is a good example.

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080105/NEWS18/80105007/0/NEWS18&theme=WINTERWEATHER

In some of the previous literature that I have read, statistics are thrown around as to how much money and lives levees have saved society. But these statistics ignore the fact that if the levees were never built that the infrastructure, people, and businesses most likely would not have developed there. It would be interesting to look into why some levees were originally built and then over time look at how land use has changed in those impact areas to see the unintended development changes and subsequent changes in risk.

hux435 said...

I like the term dysfunctionally developed because, as Sonny has noted, new technologies and planning have reduced the low impact high probability but made the risk of high impact low probability disasters much higher.
The flooding of the Chehalis river inconvenienced businesses trying to truck shipments up I-5 but what if that kind of flooding and I-5 closure happened further north cutting off access into Whatcom County? What if there was a major flood like the one in the 50's here in Bellingham where there was a foot of water flowing over Iowa street?
Long amounts of time in between major disasters can be the most inhibiting factor for effective planning. The flooding of the Chehalis river this year was the third 100-year flood in the past 17years according to an NPR interview with a state trooper in the area. Whatcom county was lucky to avoid severe flooding so far this year, but what if there was a similiar case like the one in the 50's. What kinds of plans are put in place for delivering resources to this area if I-5 was completely shut down preventing access for food trucks to get in Bellingham?
"Just In Time" inventory is a term I've been recently introduced to. Even though it might benefit profit maximizing for companies it doesn't do much good for people caught in unfortunate circumstances in desperate need of general supplies.
More importantly, can grocery stores like Haggens afford to turn away customers after a major disaster because their systems are down? What would it mean for the communities trust in them once things are back and running.
Haggens didn't seem to have much of a problem with it last year during the power outages caused by severe winds, where security guards prevented people from entering the store. Haggens has a reputation of smiles and "the customer is always right" mentality, except when the customer is most in need.