The solar system is ending

Taking off on Scott's post below, the Atlantic Monthly's July issue takes an even more extreme view of the world is ending. This month features a very interesting and informative look at space rock risk. The author discusses evidence of quite frequent meteors slamming into the earth or burning up right above the earth's surface, causing mass extinctions, dismal growing seasons, and the like. Some aren't even that long ago. The basic thesis of the article is an argument against NASA's current mission of Moon and Mars races, and a more pragmatic disaster-prevention mission. Someone needs to chart and preventative strike any space rocks that may get a bit too close to good ol' earth. The issue is out on newsstands, but should be up on the website soon.

And just on a side note, if you've ever wondered how it feels to work in disaster risk reduction in many developing countries, read the Atlantic article. The incomprehensibility of dealing with a continent-wide evacuation and major, multi-year diminishing of sunlight is the same sort of overwhelm many of our colleagues feel with more earthly disasters. When faced with massive urban migration, rampant illegal construction, rapid mangrove destruction and the loom of cyclones or sea-level rise or a host of other natural hazards, mitigation and risk reduction seems just as daunting.

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The World Has Ended

According to this cheery article by the AP.

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No More CERT At University of Washington

Story broken by The Stranger.

According to UW Spokesman Norm Arkans, CERT, the loss of federal funding—along with CERT’s director—led to the termination of the program. “The grant expired and we don’t have the resources to pick up the funding,” Arkans says. “It’s a great thing to have if you’ve got the funding for it. It has people out who can be of assistance on the ground when you have emergencies.”

Next?

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End of Katrina Trailer Parks; New FEMA Expectations?

Here's a poignant and pointed story by the NYT on the shuttering of the last FEMA trailer parks and the still-vulnerable people who are struggling to leave. The tone that reporter Shaila Dewan takes in this story with respect to FEMA is an appropriate one -- painting them as an highly imperfect agency (who isn't?) that has had egregiously unfair expectations put on them.

FEMA, which ultimately is a disaster-response agency, not a social service department, endured years of blistering criticism for its failure to understand that many New Orleans residents needed more than just a roof over their heads after the hurricane. The agency now is quick to admit that other agencies are better equipped to handle persistent social ills. Its job in cases like that of Ms. August, FEMA officials say, is limited to getting her housed.

Now I'm the first to criticize our country's (over-)emphasis on emergency preparedness and emergency management, rather than social vulnerability reduction and sustainable development. However, I think a lot of the specific criticisms of post-Katrina/Rita FEMA were unwarranted. First, it wasn't FEMA that made cuts to itself and made it a small fish in a ginormous Department of Homeland Security pond. Second, as the above quote hints at, FEMA is an *emergency management* agency. It should be supported in this role and not overstretched to meet public demands that can be met better by other agencies and perhaps even the private sector. The point ultimately is that we as a government and society need to mainstream disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (two sides of the same coin).

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California's unsafe schools

Scott Mile's earlier post on school earthquake safety is interesting, especially in light of the many collapsed school structures in China's recent earthquake. I certainly agree with Yumei Wang that Oregon and Washington schools are in serious need of attention. However, the implicit argument that California has passed laws and has safe schools, is a fallacy. We need to look to California to see and hopefully emulate the successes, but we also need to be painfully aware that even California still has serious school safety issues to consider.

Here are just a few of the issues:

A. The Field Act, requiring higher design standards, dedicated plan reviews and continuous inspection for public school buildings does increase building resistance to shaking. However, the higher standards only bring these structures up to somewhere between "life-safe" and ready for immediate occupancy.

Many of the Field Act school buildings will still sustain moderate structural damage and perhaps, significant non-structural damage. Many will not be able to be used for emergency community centers or even as schools until repairs are made. This is certainly better than buildings in danger of collapse, but remains far below ideal.

B. Private schools are and school out buildings used for after-school care are not covered by the act.

C. Portable classrooms used throughout school districts in California and other states are a significant hazard. These account for a whopping 30% of public classrooms in California. I was not able to really visualize the threat of these portable classrooms and was emailing colleagues in California about this issue. Here was the explanation of Fred Turner, a consulting structure engineer in Sacramento:
1) If unattached classrooms move relative to their stair systems(which can be structurally separated from the classroom) doors that open outward can be prevented from opening by creation of an offset, gap or obstruction that forms between the classrooms and the stairs during the earthquake, potentially obstructing egress. Obstructed egress coupled with a post-earthquake fire threat can create casualty risks.

2) Some improperly attached classrooms are on steel or concrete supports that include steel bearing plates and height adjusters. When classroom supports dislodge from the chassis during earthquakes, the steel bearing plates and height adjusters can penetrate through the floor of the classroom unit and protrude into the floor space where occupants may be dropping, covering and holding on under furniture. Occupants may come in contact with the protruding support height adjusters and bearing plates. To date, post-earthquake images document supports protruding through floors, and no records of injuries.

D. Additionally, there are legal catch 22 situations where schools desiring to tie down portable classrooms to make them more earthquake resistant wind up having to suddenly count these portables as "permanent" structures. The school then looses capital funds needed for constructing truly permanent classrooms.

The issue of school safety is immense in China, in the Pacific Northwest and, unfortunately, even in California.

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the cavalry

I have spent the week at the FEMA Higher Education Conference at the National Emergency Management Institute. While emergency management and the four phases of disaster (mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery) are a part of what we teach and research at the IGCR, it is not everything. It was clear that the emergency management field is focus on management, tactics, and coordination. All are important aspects of disaster reduction. Yet, aspects of sustainable planning, strategizing, and integrated vulnerability reduction are not top agenda items.....especially within Department of Homeland Security's dictates of a heavy focus on terrorism.

Being somewhat on the margins of the conference focus is always a fascinating position. This time I was struck (again) with the underlying oxymoron present in the FEMA mandate. On the one hand, the average resident understands FEMA's role as the knight on a white stallion, the cavalry, the agency that is going to sweep in and save them from a catastrophic event. Of course, Katrina greatly tarnished this image, but the expectation remains. On the other hand, one of FEMA's missions is to promote disaster preparedness. This promoting of preparedness requires a host of risk education and risk communication activities, many of which require FEMA to say that there is risk, that people are unsafe, and that people need to DO SOMETHING to prepared themselves. The implicit and unintended message underneath it all is, "We're the cavalry, but we can't really do our job, so you need to prepare yourself."

Its a challenging position for emergency managers to work within.

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